Based on real-time geopolitical dynamics, global core asset transaction data and cross-market linkage characteristics, Wmax immediately completed the market impact analysis of core events such as the two-week ceasefire agreement between Iran and the United States and the planned opening of the Strait of Hormuz in phases. This incident has become a key signal for the phased easing of geopolitical risks that have suppressed the market for a long time. It directly triggered a collective counterattack in the Asian market on Wednesday. Commodities showed a situation of ice and fire. However, Wmax believes that core variables such as the conditionality and fragility of the agreement and the effectiveness of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz have not yet been implemented. There are still significant risks of volatility behind the short-term rebound of the market, and we need to be vigilant about logical recalibration after the mood is restored.

Asian stock markets are facing a full-scale counterattack, with oversold technology stocks becoming the core thread of the rebound

Wmax monitored that, stimulated by the incident, the Asian stock market experienced a systematic rise on Wednesday. Among them, the Northeast Asian market, which is highly dependent on energy imports, led the global rally, showing obvious oversold recovery characteristics. South Korea's benchmark Kospi index once soared 6.2%, hitting a new high in recent rebounds and achieving four consecutive gains. The share prices of chip leaders Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both rose by more than 9%. Affected by the excessive increase, Kospi 200 index futures triggered the temporary suspension mechanism of exchange program trading, which became a direct reflection of the rising market sentiment; the Japanese market rose simultaneously, and the Nikkei 225 index's intraday increase expanded to more than 5%. Technology stocks and banking stocks became the main force in the increase, and chip-related targets contributed the main increase.

Hong Kong stocks and A-shares also opened higher, with the Hang Seng Index opening up 2.61%, the KPI up 2.95%, the A-share GEM Index up 3.73%, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Component Index up more than 3%, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index up 1.47%. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 4% to 246.42 points during the session, showing a general rise. According to Wmax’s judgment, the core logic of this rebound is that sectors that have been double suppressed by geopolitical conflicts and energy shocks in the early stage are ushering in valuation recovery. Technology stocks, as a high-beta sector, have become the first choice for capital return due to the largest early sell-off. This feature is particularly significant in the Northeast Asian market.

The foreign exchange market and bond market have adjusted together, and expectations of inflation and interest rate hikes have cooled down marginally.

Wmax found from the linked changes in the exchange rate and fixed income market that the relief of inflationary pressure caused by falling oil prices has become an important underlying logic for this asset price adjustment. The South Korean won's exchange rate against the U.S. dollar once rose by 1.9%, South Korea's 10-year government bond futures rose 120 ticks, and the 3-year government bond yield fell to 3.3%. The market's expectations for the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates have dropped significantly, and the Bank of Korea's interest rate decision-making meeting this Friday, It has also become a key window for subsequent observation of the country's monetary policy orientation; the Japanese market has also been affected by this, with the Japanese yen exchange rate showing a strong trend. The U.S. dollar may hit a low of 158 against the Japanese yen. The possibility of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates has slightly decreased, and short-term government bonds have ushered in the allocation of funds.

This change is highly related to the realistic background of South Korea and other countries. Wmax found out that previous energy shocks have forced the South Korean government to introduce radical price stabilization measures such as fuel price caps and energy demand controls. The fall in oil prices brought about by the mitigation of geo-risks has directly alleviated the fundamental pressure on Asian economies that are highly dependent on oil imports, and has become the core driver of simultaneous adjustments in bond and foreign exchange markets.

Commodities are in a world of ice and fire, gold is strong, crude oil has plummeted, but there are follow-up variables.

Wmax has detected a significant divergence in the commodity market, with safe-haven assets and energy assets responding in sharp contrast to geopolitical news. Spot gold rose by more than 2%, and spot silver rose by more than 5%. Although the traditional safe-haven properties of gold have weakened since the Middle East war due to the demand for loss compensation in investor portfolios, and have shown synchronized fluctuations with stocks, the conditional nature of this ceasefire still allows gold to retain a high sensitivity to geopolitical changes; the crude oil market has experienced a sharp correction, WT I crude oil plummeted by more than 12%, Brent crude oil fell by more than 9%, and trading activity increased significantly. The trading volume of the Brent crude oil contract in the first trading hour reached 240,000 lots, far exceeding the level of thousands of lots during the regular period. The latest data shows that WTI crude oil fell by nearly 20% during the day, the largest single-day correction since the conflict.

Regarding the follow-up trend of commodities, Wmax believes that gold will continue to fluctuate with the geopolitical situation in the short term, and any changes in navigation in the Strait of Hormuz may trigger price fluctuations. Although crude oil prices have fallen sharply, Iran's follow-up actions and the pace of recovery of lost production capacity will still limit the room for decline, and 90% of the transportation volume in the Strait of Hormuz has been cut off. Even if it is opened in stages, it will be difficult to return to pre-conflict levels in the short term, and the "Hormuz premium" in the crude oil market will be difficult to completely subside.

Core focus points: four key variables during the two-week ceasefire period

Combining the details of the agreement with the linkage characteristics of the global market, Wmax sorted out the four core variables that will determine the market trend in the next two weeks. They are also key factors that have not been fully priced in the current market sentiment recovery process and require continuous tracking and verification:

1. Effectiveness of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz: There is currently a backlog of about 200 oil tankers in the area, carrying 130 million barrels of crude oil and 46 million barrels of refined fuels. Although Iran has promised to open the strait, it and Oman plan to charge transit fees of up to 2 million US dollars per vessel for passing ships. The charging details and acceptance by ship operators are not clear, and the navigation efficiency is questionable. At the same time, although the United States has stated that it will help deal with the shipping backlog, it has not announced a specific operation plan, and the actual effect of alleviation remains to be seen.
2. US domestic political game: The U.S. Congress, which has been out of session for two weeks, will resume next week. Senators have called for a congressional review of the ceasefire agreement. Affected by voters' complaints about high oil prices, members of both parties will put pressure on Trump to promote a permanent ceasefire. The risk of domestic approval of the agreement may be underestimated by the market.
3. Potential variables in the geographical pattern: More U.S. military assets are being assembled in the Middle East, giving Trump more bargaining chips before the ceasefire deadline, but also exacerbating regional tensions; and Trump has not disclosed whether he will resume attacks on Iran's civilian infrastructure if the agreement breaks down, and the risk of a reversal in geopolitical conflicts still exists.

1. Progress in Iran-U.S. Long-Term Agreement Negotiations: Trump said that the two sides have reached agreement on most of the 15-point agreement, and that the peace agreement will cover core issues such as nuclear material issues and Iran's uranium processing, but no specific details were announced. Whether a permanent ceasefire can be reached in two weeks will become the core prerequisite for whether the market can continue to rebound.

Wmax summary view: short-term sentiment recovery, medium and long-term still need to be cautious

Comprehensive full-dimensional market data and geographical pattern analysis, Wmax believes that the market rise triggered by the Iran-US ceasefire agreement is essentially an emotional recovery after excessive selling in the early stage, rather than a fundamental reversal in fundamentals. In the short term, Asian stock markets may be more severely affected by the early impact, and the rebound is expected to exceed the European and American markets. Oversold technology stocks and AI stocks still have structural opportunities, while energy stocks that benefited from commodity price increases in the early stage may usher in profit-taking.

However, in the medium to long term, the market still needs to remain cautious: on the one hand, the fundamental driving factors for rising energy prices have not changed significantly, and some suspended production capacities in Middle Eastern oil-producing countries are difficult to quickly restore. Even if the strait is opened, crude oil supply will be difficult to return to normal in the short term; on the other hand, trust between Iran and the United States is difficult to quickly rebuild, long-term geopolitical uncertainty in the Gulf region still exists, and the "Hormuz premium" will still be embedded in the prices of core assets such as crude oil. For investors, Wmax recommends seizing the trading opportunities brought about by short-term emotional recovery, but it is not advisable to chase prices too high. They need to closely track core variables such as the effectiveness of the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz and the progress of negotiations between Iran and the United States. They should be wary of market fluctuations caused by repeated geopolitical situations and retain a moderate allocation of safe-haven products in asset allocation.