The risk of Venezuelan heavy crude oil supply interruption has escalated, and the U.S. Gulf refining chain has been affected; OPEC+ insists on increasing production to seize share, and the IEA warns of a surplus of 4 million barrels in 2026. The three variables of geography, policy, and demand are intertwined, and oil price fluctuations have intensified. Below $64, focus on the policy bottom of $50, to prevent risks in the short term, and to rebalance opportunities in the medium and long term.