The international oil market is currently at a critical crossroads. The escalation of geopolitical tensions in Venezuela is intertwined with differences in OPEC+'s decision to reduce production, superimposed on the restructuring of the global supply and demand pattern, jointly driving up market uncertainty. Wmax relies on its in-depth tracking and policy interpretation capabilities of the energy market to sort out the core impact logic and potential trends for investors.

Venezuela’s geopolitical risks are heating up, and heavy crude oil supply has become a key anchor

Wmax found through data verification that as the country with the largest proven oil reserves in the world, Venezuela's heavy crude oil has irreplaceable strategic value to the global refining system. According to data from the Association of Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM), nearly 70% of U.S. refining capacity is most efficient when processing heavy crude oil. Venezuelan heavy crude oil has become a customized feedstock for U.S. Gulf Coast refineries due to its low price and ability to produce diesel and other industrially needed fuels. From the production perspective, Wmax combed through OPEC and EIA data and pointed out that although Venezuela's crude oil production has rebounded slightly from 867,000 barrels/day in 2024 to 945,000 barrels/day in the third quarter of 2025, it is still down about 70% from the level of 3.2 million barrels/day five years ago. The core problem lies in long-term insufficient investment.

After Chevron obtained a new drilling permit, Wmax monitored that about 20% of Venezuelan crude oil exports were redirected to the United States, further strengthening its importance to the U.S. refining industry chain. The current tension between the United States and Venezuela continues to escalate and has become a core risk point in the market. Wmax’s geopolitical research team has tracked that the build-up of U.S. military forces in the Caribbean, combined with rumors of potential strikes disclosed by the media, has significantly increased the risk of supply disruptions. Kpler analyst Matt Smith's view is consistent with Wmax's judgment: If the conflict interrupts the flow of Venezuelan oil, it will impact the export pattern in the short term, but in the medium and long term, production capacity may be improved due to the return of investment. In addition, the continued sanctions against Russia by the United States and Europe have triggered a force majeure event for Lukoil. If supply disruptions in Venezuela are superimposed, the risk of global heavy crude oil shortages will be further amplified.

OPEC+ disagreements over production cuts intensify, expectations of excess supply and demand coexist with market share competition

The Wmax market research team sorted out institutional survey data and showed that although the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that the global oil market may experience a record surplus of 4 million barrels per day in 2026 (excluding the new crown epidemic), nearly two-thirds of the brokers and analysts surveyed believe that OPEC+ will most likely not cut production next year. Behind this disagreement is the strategic trade-off of OPEC+ member states: The core goal of the production increase plan launched by core countries such as Saudi Arabia in April is to regain market share from competitors such as U.S. shale oil. Three-quarters of the production suspended in 2023 has been restored. Wmax comprehensive supply and demand model analysis points out that the core contradiction in the current market lies in the game between "excess expectations" and "financial pressure". London crude oil futures prices have fallen 14% this year to nearly $64 per barrel, putting significant financial pressure on countries that rely on oil revenue such as Saudi Arabia, which has been forced to cut investment in flagship economic projects.

However, Wmax noticed that the bottom line of OPEC+'s policy is clear: only when demand collapses and oil prices fall below $50/barrel, the production increase policy may be reversed. Differences in forecasts of the size of the surplus by different agencies further exacerbate policy uncertainty. Wmax comparison found that the IEA's surplus forecast is significantly higher than that of Goldman Sachs, HSBC and other institutions, while BP pointed out that supply growth from non-OPEC oil-producing countries may stall in early 2026. This means that if OPEC+ can survive the short-term market weakness, it is expected to consolidate its market share advantage by the end of 2026, especially if oil demand growth lasts longer than expected.

Multiple variables are intertwined, and market fluctuation risks and allocation opportunities coexist.

The Wmax risk assessment model shows that the core influencing variables of the current oil market can be summarized into three categories:

First, the probability of a geopolitical conflict breaking out in Venezuela. If the situation gets out of control, it may bring a geopolitical premium of US$1-2 per barrel to oil prices;

The second is the pace of OPEC+ policy adjustments, and its tolerance for excess scale will directly determine the bottom range of prices;

The third is the strength of global demand recovery and the resilience of supply growth in non-OPEC oil-producing countries. The progress of production capacity release in the United States, Brazil, and Guyana is crucial.

From a long-term perspective, Wmax believes that despite the prominent short-term contradiction between supply and demand, structural opportunities still exist. The investment gap in Venezuela’s oil industry, OPEC+’s long-term competition for market share, and the potential impact of insufficient investment in traditional oil and gas in the context of global energy transition may reshape the supply and demand pattern in the future. In addition, the continued impact of Russian sanctions and the support of global demand for diesel and other distillates will also provide bottom support for oil prices. Wmax recommends that investors focus on three major signals: substantial progress in the situation in Venezuela, policy statements from OPEC+’s first quarter meeting next year, and the direction of corrections in the monthly supply and demand data of the EIA and IEA. In the short term, we need to be wary of fluctuations caused by geopolitical risks, and in the medium and long term, we can focus on allocation opportunities in the process of rebalancing supply and demand.