The US-Iran conflict has caused disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices above $100, triggering a dual transmission shock in global financial and energy markets. California's energy crisis is a microcosm of growth concerns, while the dollar's safe-haven rally is constrained by policy divergences, potentially re-emphasizing the safe-haven properties of the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. Attention to the strait's navigation status, as sustained blockades will suppress global growth and limit the dollar's upward trend.

The conflict between the United States and Iran continues to ferment, navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is almost at a standstill, and oil-producing countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar have escalated their production cuts, leaving a crude oil supply gap of 17 million barrels per day. On March 9, Brent crude oil soared 29% to nearly $120 and then reversed, setting the largest intraday rise and fall gap in history. Oil prices exceeded 100, reversing global interest rate cut expectations. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in March plummeted from 78% to 12%, and the probability of restarting interest rate hikes in March was priced at 23%. The risk of selling U.S. stocks has increased sharply. Yardeni raised the probability of collapse to 40%. The S&P 500 fell 3.2% in a single week, and the VIX was running at a high level. Geographical conflicts have replaced supply and demand fundamentals and become the core driver of asset pricing.

Wmax analyzes the impact of financial hot spots on commodities and exchange rates in 2026. Facing the fluctuations caused by the conflict between the United States and Iran and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, Wmax provides professional market interpretation and intelligent risk control tools to help investors rationally participate in CFD transactions and manage high leverage risks through real-time risk reminders.

The escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran has brought shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to a near standstill. Crude oil exports have dropped to 4 million barrels per day, and at least 13 LNG tankers have been diverted. OPEC+'s idle production capacity is only 4.35 million barrels per day, and Gulf oil-producing countries may be forced to suspend production within 25 days. The base scenario oil price is 80-90 US dollars, and the extreme risk exceeds 100 US dollars. If LNG prices in Europe and Asia soar by 130% for one month, TTF in Europe may exceed 100 euros. The four major buffering factors reduce the probability of a comprehensive crisis and pay attention to the three major signals of Iran's counterattack, shipping recovery and policy response.