2025年下半年非农数据现”新增就业与失业率同步上升”背离，12月收官数据显示全年仅增58.4万人为2020年来最弱，美联储1月降息概率骤降至2.8%。数据传导推升黄金至4600美元，美元指数下跌1.2%。需关注就业品质与12月CPI，避免单一指标误判。

This article provides an in-depth prediction of the U.S. economic trend and the Fed's interest rate path in 2026. Analyzing the slowdown in GDP growth, inflation stickiness and changes in the labor market, it is pointed out that the Federal Reserve will start a preventive interest rate cut between preventing recession and controlling inflation. Discuss the macro risks arising from the conflict between loose fiscal and loose monetary policies to help investors seize structural opportunities during the policy rebalancing stage.

The U.S. added 64,000 nonfarm payrolls in November, exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, a new high since 2021, and wage growth slowed. The government shutdown extended the data collection period, and the number of jobs fell sharply by 105,000 in October. The Federal Reserve faces the dilemma of weak employment and inflation risks, and expectations of interest rate cuts are rising. Wmax reminds us that we need to pay attention to the three core variables of data correction, statistical methods and real industry demand.

美联储12月降息25基点至3.5%-3.75%，欧央行按兵不动，日央行加息预期达91%。三大央行政策分化重构全球资本流动与资产定价，2026年”核心宽松+边缘对冲”格局将持续，投资者需把握流动性红利、利差机会与结构性行情三大逻辑。

In 2025, the size of U.S. debt will exceed US$30 trillion for the first time, and interest payment costs will reach a record of US$1.2 trillion. Under the impact of tariffs and rating downgrades from April to May, Pimco bucked the trend and increased its holdings, and the income fund returned 10.4%, the best in ten years. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates twice during the year, and leading institutions turned to Japan, Australia and the UK bond market allocation.

The short-term fluctuations in the U.S. stock market will not change the medium-term upward trend. It is currently in the early stage of the growth cycle, the profit expected turning point is upward, and the elasticity of small-cap stocks is outstanding. Liquidity fluctuations have strengthened expectations for interest rate cuts, and technical support has been supported by the 100-day moving average. Momentum stocks are expected to rebound in December. The target range of the S&P 500 is 7,000-7,800 points, which is the right time to plan for dips.