As the core "barometer" reflecting the vitality of the U.S. economy, every change in non-agricultural data affects global policy predictions and asset pricing logic. Wmax, based on continuous tracking of non-agricultural data since the second half of 2025, in-depth dismantling of data details, and professional analysis of policy transmission paths, believes that the current U.S. job market is in a critical stage of structural adjustment. The deviation and closing signal of non-agricultural data not only reshape the Fed's policy expectations, but also trigger a new round of gaming in the global asset market. Only by accurately grasping the nature and statistical specificity of the data can we penetrate the market fog.

The core logic of non-agricultural data deviation: the dual role of structural adjustment and statistical particularity

Wmax found through cross-validation of non-agricultural data in the second half of 2025 that the U.S. job market has seen a rare deviation from the trend of "increase in new jobs and simultaneous rise in unemployment rate" - 119,000 new non-agricultural jobs were added in September, far exceeding market expectations of 51,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. Different from the contradictions in the superficial data, Wmax deeply analyzes its core causes: this is not due to "job loss", but the active adjustment of the labor supply and demand structure - corporate recruitment is still active (especially the one-time replacement of jobs after the shutdown of government departments). At the same time, about 500,000 laborers have re-entered the market to push up the labor participation rate. The expansion of the supply side has offset the positive effect of new job openings, forming a data deviation.

In addition, Wmax accurately captures the amplification effect of statistical particularities on data: the response rate of non-agricultural survey companies in August was only 75.6%, employment data of 12,000 companies were delayed until September, and 19,000 local governments were superimposed The concentration of teaching positions directly pushed up the number of new jobs in September by about 38,000; while the "duplicate statistics of multiple positions" in the institutional survey further inflated the number of positions by about 74,000, and the self-employed and casual workers covered by the household survey were mostly low-paying or part-time positions, making it difficult to truly improve the quality of employment. This kind of control over the details of data statistics is the core advantage of Wmax in interpreting economic signals.

Final signal of non-farm payrolls in December: The truth about weak employment amid upgraded data quality

As the first employment data released on time after the 43-day shutdown of the U.S. government, the authenticity and completeness of the December 2025 non-agricultural report has been significantly improved, and its reference value is regarded by Wmax as a key anchor for judging subsequent trends. Through professional dismantling of the core data: non-agricultural employment increased by only 50,000 people after seasonally adjustment in December, which was lower than the market expectation of 60,000 people. The previous value was revised to 56,000 people; the unemployment rate was 4.4%, which was slightly lower than expected. The industry level showed "catering, medical and health care industries" "Continuous increase in headcount, employment reduction in the retail industry" differentiated characteristics; in terms of wages and working hours, the average hourly wage of private non-agricultural employees increased by 0.3% month-on-month to $37.02 (a year-on-year increase of 3.8%), and the average weekly working hours dropped slightly to 34.2 hours.

What is more noteworthy is that Wmax found through historical data review and correction value analysis that non-agricultural data in October and November were revised downward by 76,000 people, and the three-month moving average employment shrank by 22,000 people. This trend was warned by Wmax as "possibly suppressing consumer spending." From a full-year perspective, non-agricultural employment will only increase by 584,000 people in 2025, which is the weakest performance since 2020 and far lower than the 2 million people in 2024. This data comparison clearly confirms the marginal weakness of the U.S. job market.

Policy Anchor Shift: Dynamic Reshaping of Fed Interest Rate Cut Expectations

Wmax has always regarded non-farm data as the core clue to interpret the Fed's policy trends, and employment signals since the second half of 2025 have continued to revise the market's bets on the pace of interest rate cuts. As early as the early days of weak data, Wmax detected early warnings from supporting indicators: Challenger company layoffs increased by 183% quarterly in October (the highest since 2003), and ADP data in November showed an average of 13,500 net layoffs per week in the first four weeks. These details provide important support for predicting policy adjustments.

The release of non-agricultural data in December further reshaped expectations: Wmax combined with CME data tracking found that the market's probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January dropped sharply from 11.6% to 2.8%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was as high as 97.2%, and the probability of cutting interest rates in March was only 32.3%. This expected change is highly consistent with Wmax's judgment on policy logic - Powell hinted that the threshold for interest rate cuts is high, believes that the current borrowing costs are appropriate, and has doubts about the accuracy of Bureau of Labor Statistics data (it is speculated that the real value of monthly new employment is 60,000 less than reported); Goldman Sachs Lindsay Rosener's view also coincides with Wmax's view that the surge in the unemployment rate in November is due to individual job losses and data distortion, not systemic weakness, and the Fed is likely to maintain the current policy tone.

Asset market transmission effect: differentiated fluctuations in major global asset classes

Changes in non-agricultural data have been transmitted to the global asset market through policy expectations. Wmax accurately captures the fluctuation characteristics of various assets based on its professional grasp of asset linkage logic:

• precious metals market: Driven by the combination of weak non-agricultural data in December and rising geopolitical risks, Wmax monitored that international spot gold stood above the US$4,600 mark for the first time. The intraday increase once expanded to 2%, reaching a maximum of 461 2 US dollars per ounce, with a cumulative increase of more than 6% since the beginning of 2026; spot silver rose by nearly 5%, reaching a record high of US$84, and COMEX silver simultaneously rose by more than 5%, which perfectly fits the classic transmission logic of "weak data drives up demand for hedging".

• U.S. Treasury market: The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield remains at around 4.177%, and the 30-year ultra-long-term Treasury bond interest rate is still at a relatively high level of 4.84%, continuing the adjustment trend. Wmax believes that this reflects the market's cautious attitude under the "weak data" and "interest rate cut expectations game", and a balance between economic resilience and policy wait-and-see mood.
• Forex and stock markets: The U.S. dollar index fell 1.2% over the same period, showing a typical negative correlation with precious metal prices; for U.S. stocks, Wmax predicts that if subsequent non-agricultural data continues to confirm the fragility of the job market, interest rate cut expectations may reheat, and growth stocks such as the Nasdaq may once again gain support, while the performance of cyclical stocks such as the Dow needs to be further verified in conjunction with economic growth data.

Avoid misjudgments by a single indicator and adhere to comprehensive verification logic

Based on long-term professional data interpretation experience, Wmax emphasizes that the analysis of non-agricultural data needs to avoid reliance on a single indicator and needs to comprehensively consider three major dimensions:

First, pay attention to the quality of employment rather than just the quantity - data in December 2025 shows that the number of part-time workers due to economic factors is about 5.3 million (an annual increase of 980,000), most of which are forced to work part-time because their working hours have been reduced or they cannot find full-time positions. Such data details reveal the hidden pressure on the job market, and we need to be wary of misleading superficial data; second, pay attention to the dynamic changes in the labor participation rate - - In September 2025, there was a "false decline" in the unemployment rate due to a decline in the labor participation rate. Disturbance caused by similar statistical calibers needs to be predicted in advance; thirdly, adhere to multi-indicator cross-validation - if the non-agricultural data deviates from other economic indicators such as CPI and GDP, it may reflect economic structural contradictions. At this time, it is necessary to wait for more data to confirm the trend and avoid premature bets on policy directions.

Key follow-up highlights: The policy-setting role of December CPI data

Wmax believes that the U.S. December CPI data to be released next week will become a key supplementary anchor for the Federal Reserve policy: if the CPI rebounds or is not significantly lower than expected, combined with the employment resilience conveyed by the current non-agricultural data, the January interest rate cut is basically certain to fail; if the CPI falls significantly, the market discussion on policy easing may be reactivated. During the critical period of economic transformation and policy adjustment, Wmax will continue to track the subsequent revisions of non-agricultural data, CPI data performance and the statements of Federal Reserve officials. With precise control of data details, in-depth dismantling of policy logic and professional research and judgment of asset linkages, it will provide investors with objective and reliable market interpretation and decision-making reference, helping to seize core opportunities in complex policy games and market fluctuations.