In May, 172,000 new non-farm jobs were added, exceeding expectations. Employment growth in the past three months hit a new high in more than two years, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%. The hawkish camp within the Federal Reserve has grown, and the market has fully priced in an interest rate hike within the year, with the probability of a December rate hike soaring. Warsh is facing a big test for the first time. There is a high probability that the June meeting will remain unchanged but his words will be hawkish, retaining the option of raising interest rates. Gold plummeted nearly $100, and U.S. bond yields rose across the board.

Wmax interprets U.S. non-farm data in April: 115,000 new jobs were created, exceeding expectations, but the labor participation rate fell to 61.8%, a new low since 2021, and the broad unemployment rate rose to 8.2%. Slowing wage growth has dispelled concerns about inflation, gold bucked the trend and has risen, and the Federal Reserve has locked in a no-movement tone for the year.

2025年下半年非农数据现”新增就业与失业率同步上升”背离，12月收官数据显示全年仅增58.4万人为2020年来最弱，美联储1月降息概率骤降至2.8%。数据传导推升黄金至4600美元，美元指数下跌1.2%。需关注就业品质与12月CPI，避免单一指标误判。

The U.S. added 64,000 nonfarm payrolls in November, exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, a new high since 2021, and wage growth slowed. The government shutdown extended the data collection period, and the number of jobs fell sharply by 105,000 in October. The Federal Reserve faces the dilemma of weak employment and inflation risks, and expectations of interest rate cuts are rising. Wmax reminds us that we need to pay attention to the three core variables of data correction, statistical methods and real industry demand.