The escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has pushed up oil price risks. Navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is less than 45% of the pre-war level. Goldman Sachs’ extreme scenario sees Brent reaching US$120 in the fourth quarter. European diesel stocks have bottomed out, and refining bottlenecks have become a core constraint. The energy rebound has pushed up global inflation, the Federal Reserve's hawkish tone has strengthened, and interest rate cut expectations have been postponed.