The escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran has brought shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to a near standstill. Crude oil exports have dropped to 4 million barrels per day, and at least 13 LNG tankers have been diverted. OPEC+'s idle production capacity is only 4.35 million barrels per day, and Gulf oil-producing countries may be forced to suspend production within 25 days. The base scenario oil price is 80-90 US dollars, and the extreme risk exceeds 100 US dollars. If LNG prices in Europe and Asia soar by 130% for one month, TTF in Europe may exceed 100 euros. The four major buffering factors reduce the probability of a comprehensive crisis and pay attention to the three major signals of Iran's counterattack, shipping recovery and policy response.