Wmax interprets U.S. non-farm data in April: 115,000 new jobs were created, exceeding expectations, but the labor participation rate fell to 61.8%, a new low since 2021, and the broad unemployment rate rose to 8.2%. Slowing wage growth has dispelled concerns about inflation, gold bucked the trend and has risen, and the Federal Reserve has locked in a no-movement tone for the year.

Trump's pressure to cut interest rates and change directors threatens the Fed's independence. In the base scenario, inflation rises to 3%, and extreme takeover may lead to a repeat of the 1970 stagflation and damage to the status of the US dollar. Short-term political gains cannot offset the long-term costs, and adhering to the independence of the central bank is the cornerstone of stable growth.