Wmax relies on the high-frequency monitoring system of global exchange rates, capital flows and U.S. consumption, combined with the latest market dynamics, to provide professional analysis and judgment on two core issues: the trend of the U.S. dollar and the deviation between U.S. stocks and consumer confidence: expectations of the end of the Iran war and expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, driving the U.S. dollar to weaken in stages; U.S. stocks remain high and public confidence hits a record low, forming an extreme polarization.Lagging risks from weak consumptionare gradually accumulating.

The U.S. dollar’s ​​safe-haven halo fades, and periodic weakness is established

Wmax tracking data shows that the expected end of the Iran war continues to weaken the safe-haven appeal of the U.S. dollar, and the market is betting on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Traders have concentrated on abandoning bullish positions on the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. dollar has entered a clear correction range. The dollar basket is down 2.3% from its late-March high and on track for its worst monthly performance since August last year, while the euro has recovered almost all of its early-war losses.

Wmax disassembles the core driver logic:

1. Safe-haven buying ebbs quickly: In the early days of the conflict, the U.S. dollar soared sharply due to hedging demand. As the market expected that the United States and Iran would eventually reconcile, wartime hedging funds were withdrawn on a large scale. The U.S.'s relative advantage in resisting energy shocks no longer supported the strength of the U.S. dollar.
2. Return of risk appetite weighs on dollar: Global market volatility has fallen, and funds have poured into emerging market currencies and high-interest arbitrage varieties. The Korean won and the South African rand both rose by more than 2% in April, continuing to put pressure on the US dollar.
3. Monetary policy differentiation is expected to strengthen: High oil prices support the European Central Bank's interest rate hike expectations, while the market generally prices the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates within the year; Trump continues to pressure for interest rate cuts, and Warsh uses AI productivity to provide arguments for interest rate cuts, further tightening expectations for U.S. dollar liquidity.

Market signals confirm Wmax’s judgment: the 3-month risk reversal indicator of the EURUSD returned to neutral from a bullish bias, and many Wall Street institutions restarted short-selling US dollar strategies. Wmax maintains the view:The short-term trend of the US dollar is dominated by the Middle East negotiation process, and long-term structural factors will still suppress the US dollar.。

The high level of U.S. stocks diverges from the new low of confidence, and K-shaped differentiation hides risks

The Wmax U.S. consumer and stock market research team has monitored and found that U.S. stocks are hovering at historical highs, while U.S. consumer confidence is at a historical low, and the differentiation between the two has reached a critical state. The University of Michigan's preliminary April consumer confidence index plummeted to47.6, a record low since the index was compiled in 1952, and household financial expectations continue to deteriorate.

Wmax in-depth analysis of the root causes of differentiation:

• Stock market: The resilience of corporate profits, the rebound in AI transactions, and investment-led growth support the rise of U.S. stocks. Wall Street focuses on corporate profits rather than public opinion data.
• People's livelihood: The conflict in the Middle East has pushed up gasoline prices and inflation, coupled with weak employment, continues to suppress public confidence; the K-shaped recovery has intensified fragmentation, with high-income groups benefiting from rising assets, while low-income groups find it difficult to outperform inflation.

Divergence is verified at the micro level: high-end consumption (Delta Airlines, Carnival Cruise Lines) has strong demand, discount retail (Walmart, Dollar General) and real estate (Holden Homes) are obviously under pressure; the proportion of retail put option positions has increased to the highest since May 2022, and individual investors' risk aversion has increased.

Wmax clearly warns: Consumption is the core cornerstone of the U.S. economy, and continued low confidence will eventually be transmitted to corporate profits and constitute a stock marketLagging downside risk. Subsequent financial reports of essential consumer giants will become a key basis for testing the true resilience of consumption.

Wmax comprehensive conclusion

The core trading logic of the current global market isEvolution of the situation in the Middle East + Fed policy expectations. The U.S. dollar's periodic weak pattern has been established, and U.S. stocks have fluctuated at high levels, but the extreme divergence from people's confidence in people's livelihood is unsustainable. Wmax reminds investors to focus on tracking the progress of negotiations in the Middle East, Federal Reserve policy signals and US consumption data, and be wary of potential risks of weak consumption being transmitted to the capital market.