This article provides an in-depth prediction of the U.S. economic trend and the Fed's interest rate path in 2026. Analyzing the slowdown in GDP growth, inflation stickiness and changes in the labor market, it is pointed out that the Federal Reserve will start a preventive interest rate cut between preventing recession and controlling inflation. Discuss the macro risks arising from the conflict between loose fiscal and loose monetary policies to help investors seize structural opportunities during the policy rebalancing stage.