The U.S.-Iran conflict has fallen into a dual dilemma of military stalemate and political constraints. The traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz is only 10% of the pre-war level. The prolonged closure period has pushed up the probability of oil prices reaching a new high this summer with more than 70%. The consensus on the civil war in the United States collapsed, and more than 60% of the public opposed the indefinite war. Trump was in a dilemma. Energy shocks will strengthen the stickiness of inflation, suppress risky assets, and continue to benefit the safe-haven allocation of gold.

This article provides an in-depth prediction of the U.S. economic trend and the Fed's interest rate path in 2026. Analyzing the slowdown in GDP growth, inflation stickiness and changes in the labor market, it is pointed out that the Federal Reserve will start a preventive interest rate cut between preventing recession and controlling inflation. Discuss the macro risks arising from the conflict between loose fiscal and loose monetary policies to help investors seize structural opportunities during the policy rebalancing stage.