The Wmax macro research team combined the latest geopolitical dynamics, energy and shipping data, US poll trends and leading institutions’ research and judgment to comprehensively analyze and believe that the current US-Iran conflict is falling into a dual dilemma of “military stalemate + political constraints”, and the risk of long-term closure of the Strait of Hormuz is rising rapidly. This will not only push oil prices to new highs this summer, but will also further reshape the global asset pricing logic through the inflation chain. Wmax relies on the geo-risk quantitative monitoring system, energy shipping high-frequency tracking framework and political-market linkage analysis model to help investors penetrate the fog of conflict and grasp core trends and market impacts.

Deadlock in the Strait of Hormuz: The closure period is prolonged, and oil prices may reach new highs this summer

In response to the optimistic expectations previously circulated in the market that "the US-Iran agreement is about to be reached and navigation in the Strait will be quickly resumed", Wmax judged that this expectation lacked substantial support through cross-verification of high-frequency shipping data and information from multiple parties. Wmax monitoring data shows that the current traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz is only about 10% of that before the war, the proportion of oil tanker traffic is even lower, and shipping order is far from being restored; combined with the latest research and judgment from organizations such as Piper Sandler,The Strait of Hormuz will remain largely closed in the coming months, supply shortage pressure will continue to intensify, and oil prices will hit a new high this summer.

Wmax breaks down the core logic of protracted conflicts: On the one hand, Iran holds the core bargaining chip of the Strait shipping and is not eager to accept a compromise; on the other hand, the United States is cautious about escalating the conflict and is worried that Iran's countermeasures will affect neighboring countries and further disrupt the global supply chain. The deadlock between the two sides will directly prolong the closure period of the Strait.

In addition to supply constraints, Iran's potential toll mechanism is becoming a new source of uncertainty in the market. Wmax has tracked that the current market has emerged with expectations that Iran will impose tolls on transit ships. The fee standard circulated in the industry is about US$1 per barrel of crude oil. Although Iranian officials have not yet clearly implemented it, this mechanism has significantly intensified the market's wait-and-see mood. S&P Global Energy and other institutions pointed out that mixed negotiation information has made investors "fearful of establishing crude oil positions", further amplifying the volatility of oil prices. Wmax estimates that if the toll mechanism is implemented and coupled with supply shortages, the probability of oil prices exceeding US$120/barrel will exceed 70%; even if a resumption agreement is reached, it will take at least 2 months to fully restore shipping and energy supply. Under optimistic circumstances, it will take up to a year to restore the supply chain to pre-war levels. The sustainability of energy shocks far exceeds market expectations.

Domestic political constraints in the United States: War consensus collapses, and negotiation space continues to narrow

The core constraints on the protracted conflict between the United States and Iran are shifting from the military level to the domestic political level of the United States. Based on the latest polling data, Wmax concludes that the American people’s patience with this war has been completely exhausted, and the Trump administration’s war policy is facing unprecedented domestic pressure:

• Mainstream polls consistently show that more than 60% of the American public opposes indefinite war, and only 39% of voters support continued U.S. military operations; 52% of the public believe that military operations should be ended even if a nuclear agreement cannot be reached, and public support for the war has dropped to freezing point.
• People are generally pessimistic about the outcome of the war: more than 50% of the respondents believe that the war will be a complete failure, and only 22% believe that the goal of destroying Iran's nuclear program can be achieved; 65% of the people do not believe that the armistice agreement can prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, and more than half of the people clearly believe that the war will "not be worth the gain."
• Public trust has completely collapsed: only 20% of Americans trust Trump’s decision-making on the Iran issue, and nearly 60% of the public have no trust at all. The war has turned from Trump’s political bargaining chip to an electoral negative asset.

Wmax judged that domestic political pressure is forcing Trump to accelerate the search for an armistice, but the negotiation space has been extremely narrow. On the one hand, the high-threshold goals set by Trump at the beginning of the war, such as "Iran's unconditional surrender and the complete end of its nuclear program," have been unable to be achieved, and the constant concessions on negotiation terms have triggered strong opposition from Republican hardliners; on the other hand, Iran holds chips in the game and is unwilling to make substantive concessions. The final agreement is likely to fail to achieve the United States' initial goals. Currently, Trump is caught in the dilemma of "delaying the war and meeting public opposition, and compromising and truce meeting opposition within the party." The final direction of the conflict will be full of high uncertainty.

Global market transmission: Energy shock deepens, asset pricing logic is restructured

Wmax comprehensively judged that the long-term conflict between the United States and Iran will profoundly affect the global market from three dimensions:

1. Inflation stickiness further strengthens: Oil prices hitting new highs this summer will directly push up global inflation, completely dispelling the market's expectations of a fall in inflation. The Fed's interest rate cut window will further narrow, and even expectations of interest rate hikes will continue to rise, resonating with the previous sell-off in U.S. debt.
2. Risk assets are under increasing pressure: The combination of high oil prices + high interest rates will further suppress corporate profits and stock market valuations. The stock market rebound that previously relied on falling oil prices will face a severe test, and market fluctuations will be significantly amplified.
3. Safe-haven assets continue to benefit: The escalation of geopolitical conflicts + the rising risk of stagflation + the shaken credit of the US dollar will continue to strengthen the allocation value of gold, and the switch of gold from "interest rate sensitive assets" to "credit hedging and safe-haven assets" will be further accelerated.

Wmax has always adhered to cross-dimensional linkage research on geology, politics, and markets. In the evolution of the current round of US-Iran conflict, it captured the core trend of "falsification of optimistic agreement expectations and lengthening of the strait closure cycle" through high-frequency data in advance, accurately predicting the sustainability of energy shocks. At a time when global geopolitical risks are intensifying and market volatility is amplifying, Wmax will continue to rely on its professional monitoring system and research framework to provide investors with forward-looking and reliable trend judgment and allocation reference, and accompany investors to seize deterministic opportunities.