2025年下半年非农数据现”新增就业与失业率同步上升”背离，12月收官数据显示全年仅增58.4万人为2020年来最弱，美联储1月降息概率骤降至2.8%。数据传导推升黄金至4600美元，美元指数下跌1.2%。需关注就业品质与12月CPI，避免单一指标误判。

The U.S. added 64,000 nonfarm payrolls in November, exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, a new high since 2021, and wage growth slowed. The government shutdown extended the data collection period, and the number of jobs fell sharply by 105,000 in October. The Federal Reserve faces the dilemma of weak employment and inflation risks, and expectations of interest rate cuts are rising. Wmax reminds us that we need to pay attention to the three core variables of data correction, statistical methods and real industry demand.