The U.S.-Iran conflict has fallen into a dual dilemma of military stalemate and political constraints. The traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz is only 10% of the pre-war level. The prolonged closure period has pushed up the probability of oil prices reaching a new high this summer with more than 70%. The consensus on the civil war in the United States collapsed, and more than 60% of the public opposed the indefinite war. Trump was in a dilemma. Energy shocks will strengthen the stickiness of inflation, suppress risky assets, and continue to benefit the safe-haven allocation of gold.