The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have intensified, with three members supporting an interest rate hike. The probability of raising interest rates in September has exceeded 60%. Gold has plummeted 22% from its high point at the beginning of the year, marking its worst quarter since 2013. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has produced a reverse hedging effect, and the diversion of funds from the US dollar has suppressed precious metals. CD Markets believes that the interest rate cut cycle in 2027 is expected. Global de-dollarization and debt risks support the long-term allocation value of gold, and short-term corrections will open a layout window.

In May, 172,000 new non-farm jobs were added, exceeding expectations. Employment growth in the past three months hit a new high in more than two years, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%. The hawkish camp within the Federal Reserve has grown, and the market has fully priced in an interest rate hike within the year, with the probability of a December rate hike soaring. Warsh is facing a big test for the first time. There is a high probability that the June meeting will remain unchanged but his words will be hawkish, retaining the option of raising interest rates. Gold plummeted nearly $100, and U.S. bond yields rose across the board.

Trump's speech on Iran sent a signal of an escalation of the war and did not resolve the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices exceeded $103. Gold plummeted by more than 2% and fell below US$4,700. This was due to the short-term impact of the liquidity crisis and the strengthening of the US dollar. The foundation of the long-term bull market has not been broken. The simultaneous decline of stocks and bonds broke the traditional risk aversion logic, and the market priced inflation center rose. Pay attention to the evolution of the war and reassessment of geopolitical risks.