Entering the third quarter of 2026, the global financial market is in a complex pricing stage in which geo-risk premiums are rapidly fading, central bank tightening expectations are rising again, and industrial cycles and macro cycles are misaligned. On the one hand, the easing of conflicts in the Middle East has promoted the rapid clearing of energy geo-premiums, and the marginal relief of global supply chain disturbances; on the other hand, the stickiness of core inflation coupled with the resilience of the labor market has delayed the policy transition point of the central banks of major developed economies again, and the market has intensified volatility in the repricing process of "maintaining high interest rates longer". At the same time, the AI ​​computing power industry cycle continues to rise, in sharp contrast to the weakness of traditional economic sectors, and the K-shaped differentiation characteristics of the global economy are further highlighted.

Global macro and central bank policies: The end of the tightening cycle is postponed, and the differentiation pattern continues

The global economy is more resilient than expected but internal differentiation is intensifying. Global GDP is expected to grow by 3.2% in 2026, accelerating to 3.5% in 2027, and central inflation falling simultaneously to 3.0%. This baseline scenario is based on the premise that the situation in the Middle East will no longer escalate and energy prices will fall steadily. The U.S. economy remains relatively strong; the risk of stagflation in the Eurozone is rising, and the full-year growth forecast is revised down to 0.9%-1.0%; Asia benefits from the cyclical dividends of the AI ​​industry, and the growth forecast for export-oriented economies such as Singapore is raised; the Chinese economy is undergoing structural repair, and AI-related investment drives the annual GDP growth by about 0.3 percentage points. However, the pressure of slow real estate adjustment and consumption recovery still exists, and the overall K-shaped pattern continues.

At the central bank policy level, the world's major economies have generally entered a hawkish observation period of "active suspension", and the end of the tightening cycle has been postponed. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates three times during the year, with a total of 75 basis points, and the first rate hike is likely to be in September; the European Central Bank may retain the option of raising interest rates once in the third quarter, with the deposit interest rate rising to a maximum of 2.75%, and the probability of releasing an interest rate cut signal during the year is extremely low; the Bank of Japan faces dual pressures on exchange rates and inflation, and the pace of interest rate hikes may accelerate, with the policy rate at the end of the year expected to rise to more than 1.0%; the Bank of England is also in the interest rate raising window, and the pattern of differentiated tightening by global central banks will continue in the third quarter.

Commodities: Trend returns after geo-premium clears

Gold is currently in the game stage of high real interest rate suppression and long-term structural support. In the third quarter, the core shock range is 3,800-4,300 US dollars, and the depth of downside space is limited; in the fourth quarter, with the negative impact of interest rate hikes and the peak of U.S. bond yields, gold prices will start to recover, with a year-end target of 4,800-5,200 US dollars. In the medium to long term, the three major supporting logics of the central bank's continued gold purchases, the pressure on the U.S. fiscal deficit, and the long-term geopolitical conflict have not been broken. The 12-month gold price is still expected to hit US$5,200-5,500. The current correction is a bull market relay adjustment and is a long-term batch layout window.

After the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, the crude oil geopolitical panic premium was quickly cleared, and the market returned to a pattern of oversupply. The average daily surplus in 2027 will exceed 3 million barrels. Coupled with the loosening of OPEC+ production reduction disciplines, the downward movement of the oil price center is a foregone conclusion. In terms of rhythm, Brent crude oil operated in the range of 70-80 US dollars in the third quarter, moved closer to 70 US dollars in the fourth quarter, and dropped back to around 65 US dollars in 2027; geopolitical recurrences only bring about periodic pulse prices, and it is difficult to reverse the mid-term supply and demand rebalancing trend.

In the field of industrial metals, copper is switching from cyclical attributes to strategic attributes. Energy transformation and AI computing power infrastructure have created rigid demand. The tight balance between supply and demand continues for a long time. The peak price after risk adjustment in 2030 is about US$14,300 per ton. The imbalance between supply and demand of basic computing power materials such as optical fibers has intensified. There will be a production capacity gap of at least 100 million core kilometers in 2026, with preforms as the core bottleneck. The semiconductor storage boom cycle has further lengthened. In the third quarter, the average price of all categories increased by 40%-50% from the previous quarter. In the fourth quarter, it still maintained a growth of more than 30%. The shortage will continue until at least 2028.

Global equity market: AI market differentiation, value and growth rebalancing

The global stock market is at a high level of profit support and a pattern of rapid structural rotation. The upward momentum of the index has weakened, but structural opportunities still exist. The U.S. AI industry chain is the main line of long-term returns, and the industry trend is irreversible and has continuous allocation value; however, the short-term momentum of popular stocks such as semiconductors is approaching extreme values, valuations are extremely crowded, risks in a single track are rising, and funds are turning to broad-based recovery sectors such as optional consumption, transportation, and regional banks. Full-year corporate profits are expected to grow by about 25%, supporting the market's high performance, but fluctuations will be significantly amplified. In the medium and long term, there is a gap in expectations for AI's contribution to U.S. stock profits. Under the base scenario, the average annual return in the next 10 years is 5%-7%, and can exceed expectations by up to 8%-10%. If it falls short of expectations, returns will narrow, and the cost-effectiveness of blind pursuit of high prices will continue to decline.

The profit drivers of the European market are clearly divided. Technology, banking, basic resources, medical care and must-have consumer sectors have comparative advantages, while tourism and leisure, financial services and other sectors have weak profits and high valuations, and their allocation value is limited. The Japanese stock market still has the momentum to reach new highs under the dual support of the normalization of monetary policy and corporate governance reform. The banking sector benefits from the expansion of net interest margins during the interest rate hike cycle and is the core allocation direction. Emerging markets give priority to Southeast Asian economies, and the recovery of the export chain and the recovery of domestic demand form a double safety cushion. China's stock market will maintain an upward trend in the second half of the year, with repeated rhythms. In terms of allocation, it is recommended to adopt a balanced combination of high-dividend defensive stocks and AI hardware growth stocks, and gradually increase allocations during market corrections.

Foreign exchange and fixed income: The US dollar reaches a high level and credit risks gradually emerge

The core theme of the foreign exchange market in the third quarter is "high fluctuations in the U.S. dollar + differentiation of non-U.S. currencies." The U.S. dollar remains strong under the support of the Federal Reserve's tightening expectations, but the space for further sharp upward moves is limited and it is in the stage of peaking at a high level. Among non-U.S. currencies, the euro and the pound have shown relative resilience due to the hawkish stance of the central bank; the Japanese yen is still suppressed by the high interest rate differential between the United States and Japan in the short term, and the trend recovery needs to wait for the loosening of the Federal Reserve policy in the fourth quarter. Once the Bank of Japan accelerates tightening, it will start a medium- and long-term appreciation trend; commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar are subject to the weakening of commodity prices, and their rebound strength is relatively limited. The Swiss franc's safe-haven premium will still exist, but central bank intervention will limit its unilateral rise.

In the fixed income market, the continued expansion of the U.S. fiscal deficit has pushed up the supply of higher-maturity bonds. The 10-year U.S. bond yield is easy to rise but difficult to fall. The interest rate curve maintains a steepening trend. The time for allocation of long-term interest rate bonds has not yet come. Short-end high-grade bonds have higher allocation cost performance due to their high coupons. At the credit bond level, investment-grade financial bonds in Europe and the United States are relatively stable, while bad debt risks in the U.S. high-yield junk bonds and private credit sectors are spreading. Credit spreads are under pressure to continue to widen, and we need to be alert to the impact of the release of credit risks.

Configuration strategy summary

In the third quarter, the overall recommendation is to adopt a defensive and balanced allocation approach to avoid exposure to overcrowded pure AI tracks, reduce concentration in a single track, increase allocations to short-end high-grade fixed-income assets and high-dividend value stocks, and smooth portfolio fluctuations. Gold adopts a left-side layout strategy in batches and uses short-term shock windows to gradually establish long-term positions; crude oil avoids chasing higher prices and focuses on reducing holdings on rallies.

Entering the fourth quarter to 2027, as the central bank's tightening expectations are fully realized and real interest rates peak and fall, the gold and high-quality growth track will return to the upward channel. The long-term main line of global industrial upgrading remains unchanged, and AI computing power, hard assets related to energy transformation, and high-end manufacturing are still the core directions for obtaining excess returns. In the future, it is necessary to continue to track the policy turning points of major central banks and the pace of inflation decline, and grasp the key window for switching styles of major asset classes.