The short-term fluctuations in the U.S. stock market will not change the medium-term upward trend. It is currently in the early stage of the growth cycle, the profit expected turning point is upward, and the elasticity of small-cap stocks is outstanding. Liquidity fluctuations have strengthened expectations for interest rate cuts, and technical support has been supported by the 100-day moving average. Momentum stocks are expected to rebound in December. The target range of the S&P 500 is 7,000-7,800 points, which is the right time to plan for dips.

Wmax warning: Japan's Takahiro Sanae cabinet launched a 21.3 trillion yen stimulus plan, triggering a double kill on Japanese bonds and the Japanese yen; the 30-year Japanese bond yield soared to 3.35%, and the Japanese yen fell to 157 and approached the 160 intervention line. Fiscal deterioration superimposed policy contradictions, short-term fluctuations intensified, and long-term hidden capital flight risks.

Hedging costs soared before the British autumn budget, and the one-week implied volatility of the pound against the euro hit a six-month high. Regardless of tax increases or debt disaster scenarios, the pound lacked support, short-term volatility intensified, and long-term weakness was difficult to reverse.

Trump's pressure to cut interest rates and change directors threatens the Fed's independence. In the base scenario, inflation rises to 3%, and extreme takeover may lead to a repeat of the 1970 stagflation and damage to the status of the US dollar. Short-term political gains cannot offset the long-term costs, and adhering to the independence of the central bank is the cornerstone of stable growth.

Gold, U.S. stocks and Bitcoin rarely fell simultaneously. Spot gold once fell below $4,030, mainly due to a liquidity run and a sharp drop in interest rate cut expectations. The short-term positive correlation may continue, the long-term risk aversion logic has not changed, and diversified allocation is still the key.

Bitcoin fell below 97,000 US dollars and hit a new low in May. Institutional funds outflowed 2.8 billion US dollars in 28 days, and 93,000 US dollars became a key support. Giant whales reduced their holdings, retail investors surged, put options became active, and the bear market became mainstream. If it fell below 90,000 US dollars, it may reach the bottom again.

Wmax Interpretation: U.S. stocks rebounded on Monday due to expectations of a government shutdown, with the technology sector leading the gains; the lack of data coexisted with the cooling of AI valuations, and the market is cautiously optimistic at the end of the year, requiring refined risk control and diversified allocations.