This article provides an in-depth prediction of the U.S. economic trend and the Fed's interest rate path in 2026. Analyzing the slowdown in GDP growth, inflation stickiness and changes in the labor market, it is pointed out that the Federal Reserve will start a preventive interest rate cut between preventing recession and controlling inflation. Discuss the macro risks arising from the conflict between loose fiscal and loose monetary policies to help investors seize structural opportunities during the policy rebalancing stage.

The U.S. added 64,000 nonfarm payrolls in November, exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, a new high since 2021, and wage growth slowed. The government shutdown extended the data collection period, and the number of jobs fell sharply by 105,000 in October. The Federal Reserve faces the dilemma of weak employment and inflation risks, and expectations of interest rate cuts are rising. Wmax reminds us that we need to pay attention to the three core variables of data correction, statistical methods and real industry demand.

美联储12月降息25基点至3.5%-3.75%，欧央行按兵不动，日央行加息预期达91%。三大央行政策分化重构全球资本流动与资产定价，2026年”核心宽松+边缘对冲”格局将持续，投资者需把握流动性红利、利差机会与结构性行情三大逻辑。

At the end of 2025, the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained interest rates to end easing, and the Bank of Japan decided to raise interest rates to 0.75% and start tightening. Inflation is the common core trigger, but Australia is waiting to see the data, while Japan has taken the initiative to tighten despite political resistance. Both are trapped in the dilemma of uncertainty in policy paths, indicating that Asia-Pacific monetary policy will enter a complex stage of differentiation and linkage in 2026.

In 2025, the size of U.S. debt will exceed US$30 trillion for the first time, and interest payment costs will reach a record of US$1.2 trillion. Under the impact of tariffs and rating downgrades from April to May, Pimco bucked the trend and increased its holdings, and the income fund returned 10.4%, the best in ten years. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates twice during the year, and leading institutions turned to Japan, Australia and the UK bond market allocation.

At the end of 2025, the U.S. dollar entered its most vulnerable stage during the year. It was hit by a triple blow from the tariff ruling, the Federal Reserve's dovishness, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike. The seasonal weakness was significant in December. Gold, silver, and copper simultaneously hit new highs since 1980, and the weakness of the US dollar became a key fulcrum for the bull market. The central bank's gold purchases and the gap between industrial demand and supply have strengthened market resilience, and the reverse linkage pattern will continue.