美联储12月降息25基点至3.5%-3.75%，欧央行按兵不动，日央行加息预期达91%。三大央行政策分化重构全球资本流动与资产定价，2026年”核心宽松+边缘对冲”格局将持续，投资者需把握流动性红利、利差机会与结构性行情三大逻辑。

At the end of 2025, the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained interest rates to end easing, and the Bank of Japan decided to raise interest rates to 0.75% and start tightening. Inflation is the common core trigger, but Australia is waiting to see the data, while Japan has taken the initiative to tighten despite political resistance. Both are trapped in the dilemma of uncertainty in policy paths, indicating that Asia-Pacific monetary policy will enter a complex stage of differentiation and linkage in 2026.

In 2025, the size of U.S. debt will exceed US$30 trillion for the first time, and interest payment costs will reach a record of US$1.2 trillion. Under the impact of tariffs and rating downgrades from April to May, Pimco bucked the trend and increased its holdings, and the income fund returned 10.4%, the best in ten years. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates twice during the year, and leading institutions turned to Japan, Australia and the UK bond market allocation.

At the end of 2025, the U.S. dollar entered its most vulnerable stage during the year. It was hit by a triple blow from the tariff ruling, the Federal Reserve's dovishness, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike. The seasonal weakness was significant in December. Gold, silver, and copper simultaneously hit new highs since 1980, and the weakness of the US dollar became a key fulcrum for the bull market. The central bank's gold purchases and the gap between industrial demand and supply have strengthened market resilience, and the reverse linkage pattern will continue.

Japan is facing the "three-kill crisis of stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange", stemming from high debt, expansionary fiscal policy and geopolitical backlash. Domestic demand was weak, the yen fell to 157, and market panic intensified. Analyze Japan's economic difficulties and foreign exchange market response strategies.

The short-term fluctuations in the U.S. stock market will not change the medium-term upward trend. It is currently in the early stage of the growth cycle, the profit expected turning point is upward, and the elasticity of small-cap stocks is outstanding. Liquidity fluctuations have strengthened expectations for interest rate cuts, and technical support has been supported by the 100-day moving average. Momentum stocks are expected to rebound in December. The target range of the S&P 500 is 7,000-7,800 points, which is the right time to plan for dips.

Wmax warning: Japan's Takahiro Sanae cabinet launched a 21.3 trillion yen stimulus plan, triggering a double kill on Japanese bonds and the Japanese yen; the 30-year Japanese bond yield soared to 3.35%, and the Japanese yen fell to 157 and approached the 160 intervention line. Fiscal deterioration superimposed policy contradictions, short-term fluctuations intensified, and long-term hidden capital flight risks.

Hedging costs soared before the British autumn budget, and the one-week implied volatility of the pound against the euro hit a six-month high. Regardless of tax increases or debt disaster scenarios, the pound lacked support, short-term volatility intensified, and long-term weakness was difficult to reverse.

Trump's pressure to cut interest rates and change directors threatens the Fed's independence. In the base scenario, inflation rises to 3%, and extreme takeover may lead to a repeat of the 1970 stagflation and damage to the status of the US dollar. Short-term political gains cannot offset the long-term costs, and adhering to the independence of the central bank is the cornerstone of stable growth.